100% of US renewable electrical energy calculator

in 2020, I wrote an article Describe flaws in research that declare 100% renewable vitality is unsustainable. I’ve talked about these research that overestimate storage necessities and go for inadequate renewable vitality storage. She has argued in favor of utilizing extra energy-to-gas know-how to realize an inexpensive 100% renewable electrical energy grid. Nevertheless, the shortage of correct enter information made it unattainable to carry out a extra complete evaluation of the enter information used. I needed to depend on a number of the eventualities introduced by the researchers to search out an inexpensive path to 100% renewable electrical energy.

In the meantime, extra research have been printed. The brand new publications are extra clear in regards to the enter information used: Everybody can now entry 39 years of photo voltaic and wind information to research the US electrical energy grid and discover their very own eventualities for a 100% renewable electrical energy grid.

To make the info extra accessible for everybody, I counsel utilizing a daily spreadsheet device. On this means, anybody can simply analyze US wind and photo voltaic vitality information, and regulate the quantity of photo voltaic and wind vitality storage to optimize renewable vitality grid prices. As well as, the spreadsheet device robotically calculates the proportion of demand that’s lined by photo voltaic and wind vitality, the quantity of shrinkage, spare capability required, and the quantity of vitality to fuel (a carbon-neutral artificial fuel fabricated from hydrogen and carbon dioxide that’s absorbed instantly from the air). ) which will probably be required to realize a 100 per cent renewable electrical energy grid. The device then divides the entire prices by the entire demand lined to calculate the price per kWh (usable). To make this device extra versatile, the person can change the price of wind, photo voltaic, grid enlargement, storage, vitality to fuel and standby energy vegetation in addition to storage effectivity and storage capability (hours it takes to utterly empty the storage system). This manner, the spreadsheet device might be simply up to date each time new information on photo voltaic, wind, and storage price is printed. The spreadsheet device additionally comprises default price information sources in addition to photo voltaic, wind, and demand information sources (“Sources and Figures” desk).

Spreadsheet device obtain

Spreadsheet device might be downloaded from right here.

Utilizing the spreadsheet device

Fields marked in blue might be manually edited by the person. Primarily based on an assumed capability issue of 20 % for photo voltaic and 35 % for wind, the device robotically calculates how a lot photo voltaic and wind vitality will probably be generated at any given time, and the way a lot demand is roofed by photo voltaic and wind vitality instantly. Order information doesn’t mirror order change over time, it’s simply order information for one yr, copied and pasted 36 occasions. Relying on the quantity of storage and the hours of storage discharge, any extra battery cost will probably be assumed (the simulator will calculate the inefficiency of charging and charging energy). Which means that the storage system with a capability of 100 GWh for 2 hours takes two hours to be totally charged. If the charging effectivity is 80 %, it takes 2 hours of 62.5 gigawatts of photo voltaic/wind energy to cost the storage system.

Superior customers also can regulate storage system effectivity in addition to the price of standby energy vegetation, photo voltaic and wind energy, storage and grid investments.

penalties

The outcomes are calculated robotically. The device calculates each the proportion of grid electrical energy offered by photo voltaic, wind, and storage plus the price of photo voltaic, wind (together with cut-off), storage, and standby energy vegetation. The capability of the standby energy plant will probably be robotically calculated primarily based on the utmost hole between the ability offered by photo voltaic/wind/storage and the demand on the grid. Moreover, the device will add the price required to transition to 100% renewables. That is outlined as the price of photo voltaic and wind vitality (together with lowered electrical energy), storage, standby energy vegetation, and energy-to-gas know-how. Effectivity is outlined as the proportion of photo voltaic and wind vitality that’s truly getting used (not lowered or misplaced on account of inefficient storage).

Spreadsheet device accuracy

To check the accuracy of the spreadsheet device in comparison with skilled software program, I used the enter information offered by Tong et al Geophysical constraints on photo voltaic and wind vitality reliability worldwide.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26355-z).

This examine gives 39 years of photo voltaic and wind information for america and calculates a wide range of eventualities: completely different quantities of photo voltaic and wind vitality (extra capability as much as 3 x demand) plus storage (no storage, 3 hours storage, 12 hours storage) . This check reveals the restrictions of spreadsheet software program calculation: The device shows outcomes which might be barely completely different from these offered by the skilled program. The attainable cause is the inaccuracy inherent within the spreadsheet device’s calculation (every quantity is restricted to fifteen digits). As well as, the device doesn’t take into consideration the self-discharge of storage. Nevertheless, for all eventualities, the error was no larger than one tenth of 1 %.

minimal

Calculations present that the price of the renewable electrical energy community is 100%. At present price, it is simply over 8 cents per kilowatt-hour. The outcomes additionally present that reaching 100% renewable vitality utilizing battery storage is way more costly than utilizing energy-to-gas know-how.

by George Nietzsche

George Nietzsche He holds a grasp’s diploma in historical past. He’s thinking about lobbyists and propaganda, in addition to the historical past and way forward for renewable vitality. Contact the creator: [email protected]


 

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