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Jacksonville, Florida. The National Hurricane Center issues warnings about the possibility of a tropical cyclone 1.
Tropical storm identified soon (next 24 hours).
This system is an early season storm and will only slowly increase in strength.
The NHC expects this system to become tropical in Storm Alex by lunchtime Friday. The projected path is exactly what we were talking about live – a path through southern Florida, near Lake Okeechobee and then into the Atlantic Ocean.
This path will sustain a lot of heavy rain and trail far from Jacksonville.
Central and southern Florida may see up to 8 inches of rain in some neighborhoods and heavy rain during late Friday and Saturday.
Alex would be a highly divided system with plenty of worst weather far from the center of the storm. So, when tracking a storm, don’t look at the center of the storm to notice where the worst of the bad weather is.
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Polarization tracking: interactive mas | The latest from NHC
Here’s the 10 a.m. tip:
At 10 a.m. CST, the turbulence centered near 22.3 north latitude and 86.8 west longitude. The system is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general movement is expected to continue as forward velocity increases starting later today. On the forecast path, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight, across southern and central parts of the Florida peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwest Atlantic Ocean northwest of the Bahamas on Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
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Maximum wind speed is approaching 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later today, and some slight strengthening is possible as it approaches Florida today and night. Additional reinforcement is possible after the system moves east Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday and Sunday.
* The chance of formation within 48 hours … high … 90 percent.
* The chance of formation within 5 days … high … 90 percent.
Tropical storm winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1002 MB (29.59 in).
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