Philippines Election Q&A: Why did Marcos Jr. win and what can we expect from his presidency?

Why Ferdinand Marcos Jr won the Philippine elections?

The Marcos family spent years recasting their image, wrongly portraying the tyrannical rule of Marcos Sr., plundering billions as a golden era and downplaying past atrocities. Researchers describe Misinformation attack Aims to review history, enhance Marcos’ reputation and undermine their opponents.

Many voters are not old enough to remember Marcos’ rule, which ended in 1986, and academics warn that this period was not fully taught in schools, creating weaknesses that Marcos and their supporters exploited. Many supporters say they do not believe the family has looted state funds, despite numerous court rulings.

Some analysts say the Marcos election is a continuation of a populist wave that began with President Rodrigo Duterte and reflects frustration with previous administrations’ failure to provide adequate and tangible reforms in the wake of the People Power Revolution that toppled Marcos Sr.

Is Marcos an ally of Duterte?

Duterte has not officially endorsed Marcos as a presidential candidate, nor has he always been an integrator. Last year, Duterte called Marcos Jr. A “wanton” and a “weak leader,” even as Marcos was campaigning on a joint ticket with his daughter. In a separate letter, he claimed that a presidential candidate with a prominent father, in a veiled reference to Marcos, was a cocaine user.

But during his presidency, Duterte made it possible to rehabilitate the Marcos name, including by recommending Marcos Sr. Burying a hero with military honors In 2016. Sol Iglesias, an assistant professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, said such accounts are in line with his strong leadership. “But when he steps down, his main interest will be to avoid accountability,” she added.

Duterte’s recent mockery of Marcos may stem from annoyance that his daughter was running for vice president, not the top job. Who the president is will need to decide whether or not to cooperate with the ICC that has done so He launched an investigation into Duterte’s so-called ‘war on drugs’“.

Who is Sarah Duterte?

Sarah Duterte, 43, first attracted national attention a decade ago, when she punched a local mayor four times in the head, in front of a crowd of reporters. She was then mayor of Davao City, on the southern island of Mindanao, where the family has great power. She previously swapped places with her father as mayor of Davao, and held the position until earlier this year.

A motorcycle lover, she has the same tough style as her father. However, her rhetoric is less blunt and extreme (he has described the Pope asSon of a whore‘, joked about rape, and He once appeared to compare himself to Hitler).

Many predicted that she would run for president, and last year posters popped up across the country with the phrase: “Run Sarah, run.”

Running alongside the Marcos brought together two of the Philippines’ most powerful political families, and united their bases of support in the north and south of the country.

Pointing to reports that their partnership was brokered by former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, said Iglesias, not only does it reflect the mutual preservation of their families, but also the broader system of political dynasties that dominate politics in the Philippines. “Had I not brokered this tandem,” said Iglesias, “they would have fought against each other, and it would have disintegrated their mutually reinforcing bases.” In such a scenario, victory could be within the reach of someone like Vice President Lenny Robredo, a candidate who has promised reform, including an anti-dynastic law.

What can we expect from the presidency of Marcos Jr.?

If the results of the initial vote count are confirmed, Marcus Jr. will be given a significant mandate. However, his campaign has been weak on policy details, so analysts say it’s not clear how he will use the advantage. Iglesias said Marcos might seek to change the 1987 constitution. For example, he might try to change a rule that prevents presidents from seeking re-election at the end of a six-year term.

Sonny Africa, CEO of IBON, added that Marcus will inherit a difficult economic situation. “The latest central bank data from the last quarter of 2021 showed that seven out of 10 families had absolutely no savings, either in the bank or under their bed,” he said, while huge numbers of small businesses collapsed. But he added that the Marcos camp did not provide an overview of how to address these problems.

Marcos said he would only allow visitors from the International Criminal Court into the country as tourists, preventing prosecutors from investigating Duterte’s “war on drugs” in the country.

He is also expected to seek closer ties with China, and to continue the Duterte administration’s policy.